Track record
Every call is dated, scored, and left up.
Our own bench, never rented out by the hour. Each forecast states its resolution criteria before the fact, and is scored by Brier once it resolves — lower is better, 0.25 is a coin flip. Nothing is staked, nothing is deleted.
Open calls
0
Resolved
0
Mean Brier
—
“The Book”
No calls logged yet. The book stays empty until a forecaster commits a dated claim with resolution criteria — a track record only counts if it starts before the outcome does.
“Bench”
No scored forecasters yet.
Skill compares each forecaster against an always-50% baseline. Positive beats a coin flip; a small sample of resolved calls is not yet a track record.
“House rules”
- Resolution criteria are written before the call is published and never edited after.
- No money is staked. Scoring is Brier only, so confidence is honest rather than strategic.
- Wrong calls stay visible. A track record you can curate is not a track record.
- The bench is monetised through verdicts and research, never rented out by the hour.